In Gaza, a small area of land of only 623 square-kilometres, the fire that had been burning for the last 60 years blazed out again. Israel started an operation in Palestine, because of missiles directed at them. The sad picture that we witnessed in 2008 is now repeating itself. Again, civilians are being killed.
The former Turkish Ambassador to Israel, who is also an academician and an author, Oğuz Çelikkol states that the past events were not a surprise. “The ongoing negotiated peace process since 1967 was interrupted 2 months ago, once again. Israel left the table, stating that they will not continue to negotiate with a government that has Hamas in it.”
As my guest in Akıllı Para, Çelikkol stated that the military intervention came at a high cost not only for Gaza but also for Israel, and that means Israel is getting further away from a two-state solution. Çelikkol, stating that the USA plays a key role at this point, said the following: “The only power that can persuade and negotiate with Israel in the world is the United States. America should immediately persuade Israel, the bloodshed should stop, security for civilians should be ensured and the peace and resolution process should continue. There is no alternative for a two-state solution.”
Can the United States persuade Israel? As the violence in Gaza increases, the pressure of public opinion on the governments also escalates. Therefore, all those protests that we see around the world are not for nothing. They work but they are not enough. Because, there are other effective dynamics. For instance, Çelikkol reminds us that the United States is again in the election period for presidency. “Obama would not like to upset the Jewish lobby in such a period.” he says.
In addition to the situation in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine tension continues in Eastern Europe. The condition that has been going on since New Years is one step forward and two steps back. Neither Russia, nor the West will surrender. The world is on pins and needles, because the situation there is not similar to Gaza. There is trade and oil involved. The senior political analyst of the world-famous investment company Nomura, Alastair Newton, joined Akıllı Para from London. He analysed the political risks. He thinks that the news, the story being told and the comments being made are beyond reality now. Recently, it is assumed that Russia has a role in the incident of the Malaysian aircraft being shot by a missile in the Ukrainian airspace, over territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. With this view, the United States went back to the agenda of severe sanctions. The meeting held yesterday with the European Ministers of Foreign Affairs has also resulted in new threats to Russia.
Now the 3rd round of sanctions is on the agenda. Alastair Newton believes that if these sanctions are in place, then they could affect not only certain individuals or companies but also all the other sectors. Newton, stating that they do not foresee such a development yet, said the following: “Even though the talk of the financial sanctions similar to the ones implemented on Iran would scare off the markets, they are being seen as plan B. That is to say, they are not at the forefront.”
What is at the end of the road?
On one side Gaza, on the other side Russia … The ISIS terror that has commenced recently in Iraq has not stopped. The phase that began with the invasion of Mosul by ISIS is still going on, and this has caused great volatility for the oil prices. The oil prices that have gone up to 115 US Dollars with the striking news has subsided, however the risk is still there. On the other hand, question marks arise in Indonesia as the elections are over and the ambitious growth plan of the new government raises question marks. The Chinese Government again chasing suspicious plans is aiming for a 7.5% growth. Brazil is heading to elections in October…
Geopolitical risks are everywhere!
The markets are acting like the 3 Monkeys.
The senior political analyst of the world-famous investment company Nomura, Alastair Newton states that there is no systemic effect for any income class, excluding oil. He states the following: “The markets were not highly affected by the geopolitical risks this year. However, as the monetary climate changes, the risk will be further avoided towards the end of the initiative. He continues:
“I think there will be more volatility in the markets. The political risks will play an important role sooner or later.”
When Federal Reserve Banks change their monetary policy, when China starts taking action for saving and when the capital outflow in developed markets accelerates; then the fire may engulf the markets! Beware!